Pick 'Em Preview: Boilers over Buckeyes?

By Will Harris
Special to ESPN.com
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College Pick 'Em is a pick-the-winner game with a twist: Players must rank their picks in order of confidence. It's not as easy as it looks, so I'll weigh in every week to help you make those tough decisions. Be sure to log in to the College Pick 'Em page on Tuesdays for the upcoming week's matchups and previews.

Virginia Tech at Clemson (10 points)

The Hokies' offense has been absolutely miserable, averaging only 287 yards per game despite facing the likes of East Carolina, Ohio and William and Mary. The staunch run defense for which the team is known is playing well, but it will be tested by Clemson's James Davis and C.J. Spiller. Clemson's defense has been just as productive as Tech's against a more demanding schedule. The Tigers were held to three points by a tough Georgia Tech defense last week but generally have the more balanced and productive offense. Clemson was riding high at 7-1 last year when the team was thoroughly dominated in Blacksburg, Va. Expect a reversal Saturday in Death Valley as the Tigers show enough offense to outscore the punchless Hokies attack. Clemson, 27-14. C.J. Spiller

Cincinnati at Rutgers (9 points)

New coach Brian Kelly has Cincinnati in the polls for the first time in decades, and the Bearcats seem like one of the nation's most improved teams. Quarterback Ben Mauk has executed Kelly's offense well in leading a balanced attack that averages more than 450 yards per game. The Bearcats' front seven is the team's defensive strength, and Rutgers quarterback Mike Teel will have to be effective throwing the ball in order to open up running lanes for Ray Rice. It's hard enough for the Bearcats to focus amid all the pats on the back for the team's historic start, but traveling to San Diego one week and New Jersey the next is an even bigger mental chore. Expect the Knights to be focused after last week's meltdown against Maryland. Greg Schiano has established himself as one of the game's best motivators and perhaps college football's best "revenge" coach. A better-prepared Rutgers team will make the Bearcats pay for last year's 30-11 upset in the Queen City. Rutgers, 34-17.

Miami at North Carolina (8 points)

Much will be made of North Carolina coach Butch Davis' first game against his former team, but this will be a measuring-stick game for both sides. Carolina finally appeared solid on defense against a pedestrian Virginia Tech offense last week, and the passing game continues to roll behind quarterback T.J. Yates. Miami has been inconsistent this season. Quarterback Kyle Wright finally got on the same page as the receivers in a win over Texas A&M, but the offense appeared to revert back to its struggling ways against Duke last week. The Tar Heels figure to be strictly one-dimensional in this matchup, and Yates will have to throw against one of the nation's best secondaries. The field-position advantage should set up some short fields for the struggling Hurricanes offense, which will show just enough balance and big-play ability to put this one out of reach before the fourth quarter. Miami, 27-17.

Florida at LSU (7 points)

Florida was being mentioned as a contender to repeat as national champions before laying an egg against Auburn last week. It now appears that we all overreacted to the team's second-half blowout of Tennessee, as the Gators clearly have issues with pass defense and offensive balance. Aside from the steady running of quarterback Tim Tebow and the game-breaking abilities of wideout Percy Harvin, the Florida offense has yet to establish an identity. On the road in Baton Rouge, La. is usually not the place to get an offense healthy, however, and the Tigers will be out to prove themselves worthy of the top spot in the BCS rankings now that they've leapfrogged USC in various media polls. LSU has played many teams that are offensively challenged, but the Tigers have allowed a mere six points and 175 yards per game. Urban Meyer's offensive machine might be clicking well enough to damage the LSU stop unit by December if the two should meet again in the SEC title game, but it's not in sync right now. LSU is searching for consistency on offense as well but will hit on enough long passes against the suspect Florida secondary to outscore a Gators team that is still searching for playmakers beyond its top two stars. LSU, 29-17.

Kansas at Kansas State (6 points)

Kansas State committed six turnovers in last year's 39-20 loss to the Jayhawks. While the Wildcats certainly would like to avenge that defeat, it's the Lawrence invader who figures to show up more motivated for this in-state tilt. After four blowout wins over weaker foes, Kansas spent its bye week getting ready for the meatier part of the schedule. During that time off, the Jayhawks saw most of the nation's other surprise starters crack the top 25, including the rival Wildcats, who pushed Auburn to the limit and then knocked off Texas in Austin. The Jayhawks have been the most dominant team in the nation this year, but according to the pundits, the team "hasn't played anybody." With an early-season schedule of Central Michigan, Southeastern Louisiana, Toledo and Florida International, that criticism is mostly valid, but it does serve to motivate a well-rested Kansas team that will be out to prove that it belongs in the rankings just as much as fellow upstarts such as Cincinnati and Purdue. Kansas, 41-24.

Nebraska at Missouri (5 points)

The battle of Kansas is too good to be ignored, but this game is still the premier showdown in the Big 12 North. The winner won't have entirely smooth sailing the rest of the way, but it will earn the "favorite" tag. Both teams have balanced, potent offenses, shaky defenses and poor game strategists on the sideline. The Tigers have been the more productive team statistically but also have faced the weaker schedule. The Huskers haven't exactly been money on the road in conference play under coach Bill Callahan, and struggled mightily in Columbia in 2005. Missouri fans have waited many years for the team to win something other than a minor bowl, and the team knows that 2007 represents its best chance under current coach Gary Pinkel. This is the game the Tigers have had circled on the calendar all season, and the extra week to prepare should ensure that they execute that high-octane offense crisply. At home, the Tigers are too much for the Big Red Machine to handle right now. Missouri, 38-31.

Oklahoma versus Texas (4 points)

Oklahoma does appear to be the better team; the Sooners have impressed in every win. Texas, meanwhile, has struggled to its 4-1 mark, posting unimpressive wins over Arkansas State, TCU and Central Florida before falling to Kansas State at home last week. Oklahoma had its own bubble burst, dropping last week's game at Colorado in the final seconds. Because the Sooners were already accepted as a national title contender, their bubble was larger, and it will be even harder for them to recover from the disappointment. Bob Stoops has outcoached Mack Brown time after time in this series, but it will require all of his talents to get his team to refocus after the shock of giving up the last 20 points of the game to the Buffaloes. Quarterback Colt McCoy suffered a mild concussion against Kansas State but has recovered enough to start Saturday. With such tough run defenses at work, look for the game to be decided by big pass plays. Sam Bradford has been stellar for the Sooners, but unlike McCoy, this is his first Red River game. The Sooners will win, but the hangover from their loss last week will have them sluggish to begin with, allowing the underdog Longhorns to hang around longer than they should. Oklahoma, 20-17.

Ohio State at Purdue (3 points)

The Boilers always get up to play Ohio State, and in 2004 the team handed former Buckeyes quarterback and Heisman winner Troy Smith one of only three career losses. Purdue isn't exactly known for its defense, especially when it comes to the passing game. However, the Ohio State offense is ill-equipped to exploit that weakness. And now that triggerman Curtis Painter has learned to cut down on the interceptions, the Boilermakers are much more efficient at turning their yards into points. The pundits say the Big Ten is down this year, which means teams like Purdue can win the Big Ten. Illinois staked its claim as conference dark horse last week by upsetting Penn State; the Boilers are prepared to do the same Saturday. Purdue, 21-17.

Wisconsin at Illinois (2 points)

The Badgers are 5-0, but they haven't been winning so much as they've been surviving. A string of uninspiring Wisconsin victories against suspect competition means that the upstart Illini are favored here, but does the home team have enough gas left in the tank after last week's nail-biting win over Penn State? The Illini look like the most improved team in the country and boast the Big Ten's best rushing attack. Wisconsin is giving up four yards per carry but has superior personnel in the trenches. The Badgers also are a powerful running team, featuring bruising tailback P.J. Hill, but they possess more balance on offense than the Illini. Also a concern for Illinois is coach Ron Zook's weakness at game management. Wisky boss Bret Bielema has proven himself an able tactician and will have the upper hand when it comes to making in-game adjustments. The two clubs are evenly matched, but with Illinois expending so much energy in last week's big home game, the Badgers might be the more mentally prepared team here. Wisconsin quiets its doubters for the moment by notching a road win. Wisconsin, 24-20.

Georgia at Tennessee (1 point)

Georgia likes to run the ball with its fine trio of tailbacks, while Tennessee favors the passing game. But overall, both offenses are fairly balanced and equally productive. Statistically, the difference here is the Volunteers' defense, which has not played up to its usual standards. Coordinator John Chavis' unit is allowing an uncharacteristic 250 yards per game through the air and a ghastly 5.2 yards per rush. The Vols, however, have played some very potent offensive teams, notably Florida and California. Phil Fulmer also admitted that the bye week came at a good time for his team, and Tennessee is in the same type of must-win situation Georgia was in two weeks ago at Alabama. The Volunteers will come out fresh and prepared to go the distance in what should be another close SEC slugfest. Tennessee, 28--27.



 
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